I should probably have done this long ago for the record, but there’s no better time than the present. This was prompted by a couple of comments I’ve seen recently saying “Web services are here to stay!”. Bzzt!
Web services will be considered an utter failure by the industry by the end of 2004.
The end game will be interesting to watch, that’s for sure. Some companies will emerge as the real thought leaders, and others will likely be left insisting that Web services are the right way to do things. Then again, it’s possible that Microsoft and IBM spin doctors may just absorb REST; “We’ve been saying that all along!”. Either way, none of the specs associated with Web services will be in use on the Internet by then, except perhaps SOAP, DIME, and WS-Routing. But I’d have to bet against those too, unfortunately, because they’re going to get caught up in the backlash.